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Virginia — once a solid red state — has not elected a statewide Republican in eight years. With less than a week before Virginians decide, based on the most recent Quinnipiac poll, the race seems to be splitting for Northam. But studying polls from the 2016 presidential race teaches us the GOP base should not be underestimated and the Democratic based should not be ignored.
Unfortunately, as the race grows tighter, both candidates will be tempted to dust off the tried-and-true strategy of identity politics.
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